Streetwise
Lauren Rudd
Sunday, August 14, 2011
The Apple Of My Eye
No, I am not going to regurgitate this week’s events on Wall
Street. The din of naysayers and prognosticators has been deafening. I will
however take the position that a contagion of economic and financial hysteria is
flourishing. In over four decades of working with the Street, I cannot recall
such seemingly endless volatility and that includes October, 1987, a time that
resulted in the birth of Streetwise.
The economic precipice we have faced for the past three
years, and continue to face, is indisputable. Without the unprecedented actions
orchestrated by the Federal Reserve the Great Depression of 1929 would be
relegated to tea party status, no pun intended.
The current administration did not invent the budget deficit
or the national debt. And while increasing both was distasteful, no other course
of action was or is feasible, unless of course you have a penchant for bread
lines and people with tin cups selling pencils on street corners.
Tragically, many seem to think there is no logical
justification for the elderly to spend their days idly enjoying their golden
years when they could be spending them working at the Golden Arches, or greeting
customers at Wal-Mart and thereby reduce the Federal government’s burden.
One method of self-defense of course is to improve your
self-reliance. To that end let me offer up an investment idea that could
potentially affect your financial well-being in a positive way.
A company that I have the highest respect for, and an ideal
prospect in a market pullback, is Apple. In fact, Apple briefly edged past Exxon
Mobil during the recent market turmoil to become the nation’s most valuable
company, displacing an old stalwart and heralding the supremacy of an era where
technology holds sway.
In doing so, Apple’s market capitalization (shares
outstanding multiplied by the price per share) was $341.5 billion, just ahead of
Exxon's $341.4 billion, even though Exxon's annual revenue is four times that of
Apple's.
Although Apple soon slipped back to being number two, it is
simply a matter of time before the company that brought us the iPod, iPhone and
iPad ascends to the top.
Apple’s seemingly unending strength is due in no small part
to its deft handling of overseas supply and production, as well as an unerring
perception of consumer tastes. Since July 1, Apple's market capitalization
increased by more than $20 billion, fueled by optimism that a new version of the
iPhone will lead to a monstrous second half of the year.
Yes, there is on-going concern regarding CEO Steve Jobs'
ailing health and fear the company will not be the same without its
hard-driving, visionary leader. The company’s bench of capable management should
put those concerns to rest. As to competition, such as the rising popularity of
Google-powered smartphones, Apple has showed it is more than capable of staying
one step ahead.
In its recent fiscal third quarter earnings announcement
ended June 25, the company indicated quarterly revenues of $28.57 billion and
record net earnings of $7.31 billion or $7.79 per share, as compared to revenues
of $15.70 billion and earnings of $3.25 billion or $3.51 per share for the same
period a year-ago. The company also posted a gross margin of 41.7 percent, as
compared to 39.1 percent a year-ago. International sales accounted for 62
percent of the quarter’s revenue.
More specifically, Apple sold 20.34 million iPhones during
the quarter, representing a 142 percent increase over the same period a year
ago. It also sold 9.25 million iPads representing a 183 percent increase and
3.95 million Macs, a 14 percent increase. Only iPod sales appeared to be falling
as sales of 7.54 million units represented a 20 percent decline from a year ago.
The intrinsic value of the shares using a discounted earnings model with a
growth rate of 19.24 percent and a discount rate of 15 percent is $569. The more
conservative free cash flow to the firm model yields an intrinsic share value of
$1725. Yes you read that correctly. My earnings estimate for fiscal 2011 is $23
per share and $28 for fiscal 2012, with a 12-month projected share price of
$500. The shares recently closed at $363.69.