Streetwise
Lauren Rudd
Sunday, November
9,
2008
There Is A New Sheriff In Town
Regardless of which side of the political, economic or picket
fence you are on, there is one thing on which we can all agree...a historic
election is over, the country has spoken and now it is time for the winning team
to see if they can put some points up on the economic scoreboard.
A recent estimate showed that the worldwide equity markets
chalked up a $9.5 trillion loss during the month of October. That is a
substantial, even in Wall Street parlance. To make matters worse, it is likely
that we are on the cusp of a recession, the likes of which is well beyond the
memory of most of those who currently work on Wall Street.
Barack Obama won the presidency on a theme of change and I
wish him luck. Personally, I am not sure why anyone of sound mind would want to
take the job. They say a new broom sweeps clean, but it is going to take a lot
more than a new broom to straighten out this economy or the character of Wall
Street. We did not get to where we are overnight and we are not going to be free
of it overnight. However, there is one thing you can count on – we have a new
sheriff in town and the ground rules for corporate America and Wall Street are
going to change radically.
While change brings opportunity, do not become so overly
enamored with trying to capitalize on new trends that you lose sight of your
original investment objective, which is to find quality proven companies that
have a high probability of producing capital gains and dividend growth over the
next several years.
A good example of such a company is Badger Meter (BMI). No,
the company does not have anything to do with that nocturnal carnivorous mammal
of the same name. Rather, it provides water utilities and industrial customers
with instruments that measure and control the flow of liquids.
Badger, which was established in 1905, manufactures meters,
valves, flow tubes, and other measurement devices for utilities, and companies
in a variety of industries. It is the leading manufacturer of drive-by utility
meters that make in-person meter readings a thing of the past.
Although Badger has seen its business rise steadily since
municipalities began updating their water systems, the company recently reported
third-quarter earnings that although higher, did not meet Street expectations.
According to the company, sales rose 9.6 percent, to a record
$68.8 million, up from $62.8 million during the same period a year ago, driven
by demand for the company’s water utility products. Earnings increased 1.3
percent to $5.82 million, or 39 cents per share, up from $5.75 million or 39
cents per share a year ago.
On a more positive note, net earnings were $18,889,000 for
the first nine months of 2008, a 37 percent increase over the same period in
2007. Earnings per share were $1.27 during the same period, up 33.7 percent from
a year ago.
Badger has recently benefited from a substantial decline in
commodity costs, especially oil and copper, and expects to see currency benefits
from purchasing electronics from Europe, given the recent strength of the
dollar. These positive impacts on Badger’s margins could offset the negative
impact of the current economic slowdown. The company is also in the process of
moving into a new factory in Nogales, Mexico, which should enable it to expand
production capacity and reduce costs.
The intrinsic value of the shares using a discounted earnings model, with a
5-year average earnings growth rate of 13.5 percent and a discount rate of 15
per cent is $27.38, while a free cash flow to the firm model yields an intrinsic
vale of $28.57 per share. My earnings estimate for this year is $1.55 per share
and $1.75 per share for 2009. My 12-month target price on the shares is $26, for
an annual gain of 11.7 percent over the recent price of $23.28. In addition
there is a dividend yield of 1.80 percent.