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lll The Rudd Report - Investment News and Research
3rd Quarter Update Report on AMDL, Inc.
Symbol: ADL American Stock Exchange
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China-Wholesale |
China-Direct
Distribution |
Corporate |
Total |
Net revenue |
$ 9,513,272 |
$ 39,084 |
$ 93,700 |
$ 9,646,056 |
Gross profit |
$ 5,344,500 |
$ 39,084 |
$ 76,421 |
$ 5,460,005 |
Depreciation |
$ 639,744 |
$ — |
$ 4,740 |
$ 644,484 |
Amortization |
$ 165,329 |
$ — |
$ 75,000 |
$ 240,329 |
Interest expense |
$ 276,045 |
$ — |
$ — |
$ 276,045 |
Net income (loss) |
$ 2,787,289 |
$ 39,084 |
$ (6,092,976) |
$ (3,266,603) |
Identifiable assets |
$ 22,515,975 |
$ 557,093 |
$ 3,082,941 |
$ 26,156,009 |
Capital expenditures |
$ 3,275,073 |
$ — |
$ 12,331 |
$ 3,287,404 |
No information for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 is presented because JPI was not acquired until September 28, 2006.
Figure 1
Growth Comparison
Figure 2 illustrates sales,
margin and earnings growth for AMDL as compared to its industry, sector and the
S&P 500.
|
ADL |
|
Sec. |
S&P
500 |
Sales Growth Most
Recent Quarter |
25,557 |
13.9 |
14.3 |
14.9 |
Sales Growth
Trailing 12 Months |
5,755 |
15.0 |
14.6 |
14.7 |
Gross Margin
Trailing Twelve Months |
55.5 |
61.6 |
67.4 |
45.1 |
EPS Growth Most Recent Quarter |
123.1 |
13.0 |
10.1 |
11.4 |
Figure 2
AMDL PEER
GROUP COMPARISON & VALUATION ANALYSIS
November 11, 2007
Company |
Symbol |
Market Cap. |
Price to Sales |
Price to Book |
Forward P/E |
Trailing P/E |
Rev’s (ttm) |
2007 Rev's
Est. |
2008 Rev’s
Est. |
Rev’s Per Share (ttm) |
AMDL |
ADL |
$57.23 M |
9.30 |
3.36 |
N/A |
N/A |
$5.91 M |
$17 M |
$70 M |
$0.624 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CMED |
$1.09 B |
13.73 |
6.67 |
18.83 |
26.66 |
$81.96 |
$119 M |
$151 M |
$3.07 |
Am.
Oriental Bio. |
AOB |
$889.98 M |
6.37 |
3.39 |
15.03 |
20.82 |
$144 M |
$160 M |
$231 M |
$2.148 |
Simcere
Pharma |
SCR |
$861.34 |
5.51 |
3.42 |
2.30 |
23.10 |
$154 M |
$1.33 B |
$1.69 B |
$2.93 |
|
WX |
$705.25 M |
7.64 |
N/A |
40.15 |
95.67 |
$106 M |
$134 M |
$212 M |
$4.05 |
3S Bio |
SSRX |
$354.57 M |
18.07 |
2.89 |
26.32 |
37.09 |
$20 M |
$23.3 M |
$36.1 M |
$1.19 |
Tongjitang |
TCM |
$300.81 |
4.11 |
1.91 |
1.35 |
12.18 |
$72.8 M |
$584 M |
$748 M |
$2.74 |
|
BJGP |
$279.85 M |
10.53 |
16.84 |
N/A |
N/A |
$27 M |
$75 M |
$120 M |
$1.07 |
Benda Pharma
|
BPMA.OB |
$207.38 M |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
71.70 |
N/A |
$25.1M |
$56.7 M |
N/A |
|
KUN |
$122.96 M |
5.64 |
10.62 |
N/A |
N/A |
$21.9M |
$27.0 M |
N/A |
$1.179 |
|
CAXG.OB |
$111.64 M |
57.58 |
9.14 |
N/A |
N/A |
$1.94 M |
N/A |
N/A |
$0.048 |
Shengtai
Pharma |
SGTI.OB |
$75.5 M |
N/A |
N/A |
6.45 |
9.52 |
$36.0 M |
$51.7 M |
N/A |
$2.00 |
Dragon Pharma |
DRUG.OB |
$65.05 M |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
14.40 |
$44.0 M |
N/A |
N/A |
NA |
|
CHBP.OB |
$14.17 M |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
$25.3 M |
$35 M |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Averages |
|
|
10.18 |
6.01 |
18.02 |
36.00 |
|
|
|
$1.811 |
Figure 3
OUR OPINION
In looking at
AMDL’s performance, we reiterate the point that the Company reaching
profitability during the third quarter exceeded our expectations. More
importantly, it reaffirms our revenue projection of $53 million in 2008 from
Jade’s distribution business alone. In addition, we are anticipating an
additional $17 million in revenues from the new
JPGreen Health & Beauty Centers under the assumption that not all 200 stores
will open immediately. Therefore, the total revenue in 2008 from Jade is
currently estimated at $70 million. Assuming the
current net profit margin remains at approximately 25%, Jade should contribute
minimum net earnings of approximately $17.5 million in 2008.
As we have stated
previously, we do not believe that DR-70®
will have an appreciable effect on AMDL’s earnings in this calendar year. In
light of the FDA’s latest request for additional information and data, we now
strongly believe that approval will come sometime during first quarter of 2008
and possibly even later.
However, we want
to stress that while we continue to believe that receiving FDA for approval for
DR-70® is
certainly an important factor to the company’s ongoing success and continue to
believe that an approval will eventually be forthcoming, we also continue to
stand by our opinion that the importance of FDA approval has diminished somewhat
in light of the company’s current and projected performance in China. As
such, we are basing our projection for AMDL’s performance in 2008 exclusively on
the performance of Jade
Furthermore, we feel that DR-70® is likely to be
approved in
We are currently projecting Jade to generate net revenues for
the year 2007 of $17 million or about more than two and one-half times what Jade
did in 2006. As Jade’s new distribution agreements develop their full potential,
we believe that overall net sales will increase to about $70 million, for a net
profit of about $17.5 million in 2008; all without
DR-70® having any consequence.
As of September 30, 2007, there were approximately 12.8
million shares outstanding, with the result that Jade would contribute about
$1.36 per share at the close of 2008. However, if we assume AMDL sells
additional equity at a discount in order to raise needed cash, using a 25%
discount to the current share price of $4.17 or $3.13 per share, an additional
$15 million in capital will mean an increase in share count of approximately 4.8
million shares, for a total of 17.6 million shares, thereby reducing Jade’s 2008
contribution to about $0.99 per share.
In our
estimation, AMDL will receive FDA approval for DR-70®
sometime during the first quarter of 2008. An approval by the FDA of DR-70®
at that point in time would result in about $8 million in gross profits during
the second half of 2008, of which at least $6 million will fall to the bottom
line pre-tax because the majority of all overhead expenses are already covered
in the Jade numbers. The after-tax net should then be about $4 million or about
$0.23 per share in 2008.
With DR-70®
approval in the first quarter of 2008, the two divisions of AMDL would show
total net earnings for 2008 of $21.5 million, or about $1.68 per share prior to
additional financing and $1.22 per share on our projected increase in shares
resulting from the additional financing. If we use a multiple of 22 times
earnings, which is comparable other companies in the same industry, we would
project a 2008 target for AMDL’s shares of $26 per share. Furthermore, we
believe that if AMDL performs in accordance with our projections, the market
will allow the company a multiple that is in the 28+ range. However, we want to
stress that we have no evidence or knowledge as to the amount of additional
capital, if any, that AMDL will raise or under what terms. To that regard, our
numbers are a projection based on prior experience with other companies.
In evaluating the
risk involved, we feel certain that the Jade division will produce earnings of
at least $0.99 per share by the close of 2008. A multiple of 22 equates to
$21.78 per share. Therefore, we feel that the downside risk is not only minimal
but that there is an opportunity for substantial appreciation in the share price
even without FDA or SFDA approval of DR-70®.
FINANCIAL
STATEMENTS
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
(Unaudited)
|
September 30,
2007
|
ASSETS |
|
Current assets: |
|
Cash and cash equivalents....................................................................................... |
$ 1,228,022 |
Accounts receivable, net.......................................................................................... |
3,055,584 |
Inventories.............................................................................................................. |
835,505 |
Prepaid consulting................................................................................................... |
797,063 |
Other prepaid expenses and current assets............................................................... |
1,990,679 |
Total current assets........................................................................................... |
7,906,853 |
|
|
Property and equipment, net....................................................................................... |
10,994,939 |
Intangible assets, net................................................................................................... |
5,137,616 |
Other assets............................................................................................................... |
2,116,601 |
Total assets....................................................................................................... |
$ 26,156,009 |
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY |
|
Current liabilities: |
|
Accounts payable and accrued expenses.................................................................. |
$ 2,692,786 |
Value added and other taxes payable....................................................................... |
558,240 |
Deferred revenue..................................................................................................... |
279,344 |
Current portion of notes payable.............................................................................. |
3,248,864 |
Total current liabilities........................................................................................ |
6,779,234 |
|
|
Notes payable, net of current portion.......................................................................... |
1,891,561 |
Total liabilities................................................................................................... |
8,670,795 |
Stockholders’ equity: |
|
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value; 25,000,000 shares authorized; no shares issued and outstanding.................................................................................................. |
— |
Common stock, $0.001 par value; 100,000,000 shares authorized; 12,679,317 shares issued and 12,579,317 shares outstanding................................................ |
12,579 |
Additional paid-in capital......................................................................................... |
54,704,855 |
Accumulated other comprehensive gain.................................................................... |
569,526 |
Accumulated deficit................................................................................................. |
(37,801,746) |
Total stockholders’ equity................................................................................. |
17,485,214 |
|
$ 26,156,009 |
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)
(Unaudited)
|
Three Months Ended
|
Nine Months Ended
|
||
|
September 30,
|
September 30,
|
||
|
2007 |
2006 |
2007 |
2006 |
Net revenues.............................................. |
$ 5,808,376 |
$ 21,005 |
$ 9,646,056 |
$ 54,105 |
Cost of sales............................................... |
2,226,692 |
8,972 |
4,186,051 |
21,460 |
Gross profit.......................................... |
3,581,684 |
12,033 |
5,460,005 |
32,645 |
Operating expenses: |
|
|
|
|
Research and development...................... |
2,407 |
162,894 |
15,534 |
282,139 |
Selling, general and administrative............ |
3,090,059 |
819,265 |
8,330,604 |
2,340,319 |
Total operating expenses...................... |
3,092,466 |
982,159 |
8,346,138 |
2,622,458 |
Gain (loss) from operations................... |
489,218 |
(970,126) |
(2,886,133) |
(2,589,813) |
Other income (expense): |
|
|
|
|
Loss on the disposal of equipment............ |
(1,555) |
— |
(3,855) |
— |
Interest income........................................ |
1,996 |
7,789 |
7,584 |
22,489 |
Interest expense...................................... |
(87,081) |
— |
(276,045) |
— |
Total other income (expense), net......... |
(86,640) |
7,789 |
(272,316) |
22,489 |
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes...................................... |
402,578 |
(962,337) |
(3,158,499) |
(2,567,324) |
Provision for income taxes.......................... |
19,470 |
|
108,154 |
— |
Net income (loss)....................................... |
383,108 |
(962,337) |
(3,266,603) |
(2,567,324) |
Other comprehensive income:..................... |
|
|
|
|
Foreign currency translation gain.............. |
247,918 |
— |
591,254 |
— |
Comprehensive gain (loss).......................... |
$ 631,026 |
$ (962,337) |
$ (2,675,349) |
$ (2,567,324) |
Basic income (loss) per common share........ |
$ 0.05 |
$ (0.13) |
$ (0.24) |
$ (0.38) |
Diluted income (loss) per common share..... |
$ 0.05 |
$ |
$ |
$ |
Weighted average common shares outstanding — basic.................................. |
12,550,666 |
7,372,750 |
11,357,055 |
6,689,326 |
Weighted average common shares outstanding — diluted............................... |
12,773,521 |
7,372,750 |
11,357,055 |
6,689,326 |
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited)
|
Nine Months Ended
|
|
|
September 30, 2007 |
September 30, 2006 |
CASH FLOWS FROM
OPERATING ACTIVITIES: |
|
|
Net loss...............................................................................
|
$
(3,266,603) |
$
(2,567,324) |
Adjustments to
reconcile net loss to net cash used in operating activities: |
|
|
Depreciation and
amortization............................................
|
884,812 |
81,463 |
Loss on disposal
of equipment............................................
|
3,855 |
— |
Fair market value
of common stock, warrants and options issued for services...........................................................
|
1,744,164 |
481,525 |
Fair market value
of options granted to employees and directors for services.......................................................
|
1,577,610 |
240,300 |
Changes in
operating assets and liabilities: |
|
|
Accounts
receivable.......................................................
|
(1,176,945) |
— |
Inventories....................................................................
|
(94,847) |
4,983 |
Prepaid expenses
and other current assets.......................
|
(1,928,412) |
21,115 |
Other assets..................................................................
|
(465,166) |
— |
Accounts payable
and accrued expenses.........................
|
(34,868) |
220,630 |
Deferred revenue..........................................................
|
279,344 |
— |
Value added and
other taxes payable..............................
|
558,240 |
— |
Net cash used in
operating activities......................................
|
(1,918,816) |
(1,517,308) |
|
|
|
CASH FLOWS FROM
INVESTING ACTIVITIES: |
|
|
Purchases of
property and equipment....................................
|
(1,946,551) |
(2,797) |
Purchases of
production rights...............................................
|
(1,340,853) |
— |
Cash paid for JPI
acquisition, net of cash acquired..................
|
— |
(373,104) |
|
|
|
Net cash used in
investing activities.......................................
|
(3,287,404) |
(375,901) |
|
|
|
CASH FLOWS FROM
FINANCING ACTIVITIES: |
|
|
Proceeds from
issuance of common stock, net of offering costs of $757,014 in 2007
and $354,571 in 2006.....................
|
4,572,497 |
1,457,924 |
Proceeds from
exercise of options.........................................
|
271,200 |
— |
Proceeds from
exercise of warrants......................................
|
— |
42,241 |
|
|
|
Net cash provided
by financing activities...................................
|
4,843,697 |
1,500,165 |
|
|
|
Effect of exchange
rates on cash and cash equivalents..............
|
(5,572) |
— |
|
|
|
Net change in cash
and cash equivalents...................................
|
(356,951) |
(393,044) |
Cash and cash
equivalents, beginning of the period.....................
|
1,584,973 |
1,398,092 |
|
|
|
Cash and cash
equivalents, end of period...................................
|
$
1,228,022 |
$
1,005,048 |
|
|
|
SUPPLEMENTAL
DISCLOSURE OF CASH FLOW INFORMATION: |
|
|
Cash paid during
the period for interest..................................
|
$
276,045 |
$
— |
Cash paid during
the period for income taxes..........................
|
$
108,199 |
$
2,881 |
SUPPLEMENTAL
DISCLOSURE OF NON-CASH ACTIVITIES: |
|
|
Value of common
stock recorded as prepaid consulting and accrued expenses...............................................................
|
$
1,893,600 |
— |
Increase in debt
and fixed assets due to purchase price adjustment..........................................................................
|
$
214,617 |
— |
AMDL,
Inc.
2492 Walnut Avenue
Suite 100
Tustin, CA 92780
Gary L. Dreher, President and CEO
Market Capitalization:
$53.4 million
Shares Outstanding: (as of
Disclaimer
This
disclaimer is an integral part of our service. Please read it before investing
in any security on which we report.
Opinions are
solely those of the staff of The Rudd Report and are subject to change without
notice. Our reports are for information only and we do not offer securities or
solicit the offer of securities of any company. Our reports are to inform the
public and not to promote any company or its securities.
We do not
inform any company in advance of the nature or conclusions of our reports nor
can a company change what we write.
In the case of
AMDL we received a fee for coverage of the current quarter in the amount of
$6,000.