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MarketView
Events defining the day's trading activity on Wall Street
Lauren Rudd
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Summary
With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, the major equity indexes ended the day slightly lower on
Tuesday after FedEx reduced its earnings number and investors pulled
back after last week's rally on central bank stimulus. Shares of FedEx
Corp fell 3.1 percent to $86.55. Declining crude oil prices also weighed
on the market for a second day, with the S&P 500 energy index down 0.7
percent, making it the day's largest decliner among the S&P's sectors. The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 5.3 percent since
the end of July. The benchmark index reached levels not seen in nearly
five years last Friday, a day after the Federal Reserve's unveiling of
its plan to undertake a third round of stimulus. The Fed's announcement
followed the European Central Bank's statement that it would buy bonds
to support struggling euro- zone economies. The Dow Jones transportation average lost 1.1
percent. FedEx cut its profit forecast for its fiscal year 2013, saying
that a weakening world economy had prompted customers to shift toward
lower-priced shipping. Estimates for the third-quarter S&P 500 companies'
profits have fallen sharply in recent months, and earnings now are
expected to decline 2.2 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson
Reuters data. It would be the first such decline in three years. Apple, which broke sales records with its new
smartphone, provided some support to the market. Apple's stock set
another all-time high at $702.33 before ending at $701.91, up 0.3
percent. Weighing on the tech sector were shares of Advanced
Micro Devices, which fell 9.7 percent to $3.62 a day after the company
said its chief financial officer was leaving the struggling personal
computer chipmaker. Economic data, however, offered a fresh sign of
momentum for the housing market. Homebuilder sentiment rose for the
fifth month in a row in September to its highest level in over six
years, the National Association of Home Builders said. Volume was lower than average for a second straight
day, with roughly 5.9 billion shares changing hands on the three major
equity exchanges, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing
volume of 6.5 billion shares. Many participants were out Monday and
Tuesday for the observance of Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year.
The Fed Means Business The Federal Reserve will not waver from its
aggressive policy stance when one of its two bond-buying programs
expires at year end, and it is prepared to do even more to get Americans
back to work, two Fed officials said on Tuesday. Last week the Fed launched a potentially massive
policy-easing effort with no set end date, will closely watch the ailing
labor market for meaningful signs of improvement, the Fed policymakers
said. In response to lackluster economic growth that has not been enough
to drive the unemployment rate down from levels above 8 percent, the Fed
headed deeper into uncharted policy territory with a third round of
quantitative easing, or QE3. William Dudley, president of the New York Federal
Reserve Bank, said the economy needed a "nudge in the right direction,"
while Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed, predicted the central bank
will keep buying assets at its current $85 billion-per-month pace into
the new year. "If the economy is weaker, we'll do more" asset
purchases, said Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a
key barometer of the thinking inside the central bank. "If the economy
is stronger and we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the
labor market sooner, we'll end up doing less." Dudley went on to say, "If you're trying to get a
car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don't stop pushing the moment
the wheels start turning - you keep pushing until the car is rolling and
is clearly free." Last week the Fed said it plans to buy $40 billion
every month in mortgage-backed securities until the labor market outlook
improves substantially. The purchases come on top of an existing
stimulus program in which the central bank buys about $45 billion a
month in long-term Treasuries while selling the same amount of
short-term Treasuries. That program, dubbed Operation Twist and designed
to drive down long-term borrowing rates such as mortgages, runs through
the end of 2012. Evans, who has long advocated such aggressive action
by the Fed, said he would be surprised if there is enough evidence by
year-end to halt Treasury purchases altogether. "Under those conditions, I would expect we would
continue with something like an $85 billion base of purchases ... that's
a benchmark to start from," he said. Wall Street economists have been trying to pinpoint
exactly what conditions would constitute a "substantial" improvement in
the outlook for the labor market, which the Fed last week suggested
would halt the new money-printing program. Addressing this question, Dudley said the Fed will
watch all corners of the labor market, including payroll growth, the
number of Americans who have given up the hunt for work, the
employment-to-population-ratio and job-finding rates, as well as the
broader measure of unemployment. At year end, further purchases of Treasuries will
depend on an assessment of costs and benefits and on labor improvement,
said Dudley, who as head of the important New York regional Fed bank has
a permanent vote on Fed policy. Ultimately, the Fed is looking for a stronger
recovery alongside stable prices, said Dudley. "When that finally
materializes, I'll view it as consistent with the result we are trying
to achieve, and not a reason to pull back our policies prematurely," he
said. Fed policymakers broadly agree that unemployment is
much too high; most also agree that inflation, which has hovered near
the Fed's 2 percent target, is well under control. However, there
continues to be deep rifts within the central bank over the best policy
response. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a forceful
opponent of further easing, said he would have dissented last week if he
had a vote on the bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee
this year. "I would argue that it is less impactful right now
because you have other things inhibiting businesses from making
decisions on capex and employment," Fisher told CNBC. "I don't think
this program will have much efficacy." James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed,
expressed a similar sentiment. While he has been less skeptical than
Fisher about the use of bond buys as a stimulus option, Bullard told
Reuters he did not think the economic data sufficiently weak to warrant
the latest round of monetary easing. "I would have voted against it based on the timing.
I didn't feel like we had a good enough case to make a major move at
this juncture," said Bullard, who is not a voter this year on the
Federal Open Market Committee. "We should take a little bit more (of a) wait and
see posture. I think that constellation of economic data doesn't really
dictate the decision that we made." Only one of the 12 Fed voting policymakers dissented
against QE3, which came very close to a plan Evans has advocated for the
past year: a vow to keep rates low until unemployment drops below 7
percent or inflation threatens to top 3 percent, and to buy bonds if
progress on jobs is not fast enough. "I am optimistic that we can achieve better outcomes
through more monetary policy accommodation," Evans told a business
breakfast sponsored by the Bank of Ann Arbor. "This is the time to act,"
he said, adding that asset purchases could begin to taper in 2014 if the
labor market improves as he expects. Evans cast the debate over monetary policy as one
between optimists who believe further easing can deliver a stronger
economy, and pessimists who say it will only spark inflation. Pessimists
have warned for years about higher inflation, only to have their
predictions fall short, he said. Risks abound that could send the U.S. economy back
into recession, he said, citing a potential global slowdown, spillover
from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the looming "fiscal cliff." "We cannot be complacent and assume that the economy
is not being damaged if no action is taken," Evans said.
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MarketView for September 18
MarketView for Tuesday, September 18