MarketView for May 16

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MarketView for Monday, May 16
 

 

 

MarketView

 

Events defining the day's trading activity on Wall Street

 

Lauren Rudd

 

Monday, May 16, 2011

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

12,548.37

q

-47.38

-0.38%

Dow Jones Transportation Average

5,372.48

q

-11.43

-0.21%

Dow Jones Utilities Average

436.59

q

-0.32

-0.07%

NASDAQ Composite

2,782.31

q

-46.16

-1.63%

S&P 500

1,329.47

q

-8.30

-0.62%

 

Summary 

 

The major equity indexes were lower on Monday, as investors took profits off the table in a sign of growing unease with economic weakness within some areas of the economy. On Monday, a gauge of manufacturing in New York State slid much more than expected in May to its lowest level in five months, the New York Federal Reserve said.

 

Furthermore, concerns over the market's ability to extend current rally have increased. The expected end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program next month and the recent collapse in commodity prices have had many taking this opportunity to sell more volatile stocks that have outperformed in 2011.

 

Amazon lost 5 percent to close at $192.51, along with "high-beta" names including Priceline, down 3.3 percent to close at $503.38, and Netflix, down 3.8 percent and closing at $237.09. Priceline is up 26 percent since the start of the year, while Netflix is up 35 percent.

 

Tech and consumer-related shares were the largest drags on the S&P 500, and their losses outweighed gains in defensive sectors such as health care and utilities. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 index is still up about 27 percent since the start of September. Furthermore, share prices could continue to move higher in the near term as those chasing performance keep on buying. However, recent price action portends further market weakness, some analysts say. The S&P 500 ended a tad below key near-term support of 1,330, closing at its lowest since April 19.

 

Among some of the most discouraging corporate results, Lowe's reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and cut its forecast for the year, sending shares down 3.6 percent to close at $24.84. Financials helped stem the Dow's losses, including American Express, whose shares were up 1.2 percent to close at $50.07.

 

In the euro zone, finance ministers are likely to back a bailout package for Portugal, with new conditions set by Finland. During a meeting, euro-zone officials were expected to pressure Greece to announce more austerity steps to secure further emergency funding.

 

In other earnings news, shares of J.C. Penney fell 3.2 percent to $37.21 after the department store operator reported a higher quarterly profit as the shares retraced some of their recent gains.

 

About 6.85 billion shares traded on the three major equity exchanges, as compared with an average of 7.73 billion shares so far in 2011.

 

Gross Says PIMCO "never" Short Treasuries

 

Bill Gross, manager of top bond fund PIMCO, said on Monday it was a "misconception" that the firm was betting against U.S. Treasuries, despite his concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook.

 

"We, in fact, were never short Treasuries, we're very underweight Treasuries, let's put it that way," Gross, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, said in an interview with CNBC.

 

He said PIMCO is outperforming 77 percent of the bond market universe even as Treasuries rally "because we hold other bonds that are doing better than Treasuries."

 

The company's website in May showed PIMCO's $240 billion Total Return fund was short U.S. government-related debt -- which includes Treasuries, TIPS, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury futures and options, and FDIC-guaranteed corporate securities.

 

Asked by Reuters about which of those assets PIMCO was shorting rather than Treasuries, a spokesperson said the firm does not break down that information.

 

PIMCO started betting against U.S. government-related debt in April, with a short position equivalent to 3 percent of the assets in its Total Return fund.

 

The fund increased that short position to 4 percent this month as the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program neared its scheduled end in June, raising worries as to who will support the government bond market after that.

 

Euro Slightly Higher

 

The euro moved a bit higher on Tuesday, pulling away from a recent 7-week low. However, downside risks remained after its recent breach of a technical support level and given the lingering possibility of further long liquidation.

 

The euro also remains vulnerable due to concerns about the debt of peripheral euro zone countries; although it gained some reprieve on Monday after euro zone finance ministers approved an emergency loan program for Portugal.

 

The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.4171, having come off of a seven-week low of $1.40481. The euro also edged up 0.2 percent against the yen to 114.629 yen, having bounced off a two-month low of 113.403 yen.

 

The $1.39-40 region is regarded as a significant area for the euro. There have been rumors this week of stop-loss euro offers at levels around $1.40. In addition, a series of euro support levels are clustered in that region, including the 100-day moving average near $1.3933.

 

The euro had rallied to a 17-month peak near $1.4940 in early May, buoyed by market expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates further in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve is seen likely to keep interest rates near zero this year. However, the single currency has since slid about 5 percent from that high, as a rout in commodities such as silver and oil spooked investors and prompted them to trim back their risk positions.

 

Renewed concerns that Greece may restructure its debt have also dented the euro and tempered risk appetite.

 

Positioning data published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that currency speculators trimmed their net long position in the euro in the week to May 10 but still held relatively large bets on the euro.

 

Their net long position in the euro stood at 61,447 contracts. While that was down from a four-year high of 99,516 hit the week before, it is still among the largest net long positions seen since late 2007. The data also shows that speculators have flipped to a net long position in the yen after having been net short the Japanese currency the prior week. Such a change in positioning suggests that there may now be less short-covering interest in the yen than before.

 

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against the yen to 80.90 yen, having regained some ground after having dropped to 79.57 yen in early May, the dollar's lowest level against the yen since mid-March.