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MarketView
Events defining the day's trading activity on Wall Street
Lauren Rudd
Monday, May 16, 2011
Summary
The major equity indexes were lower on Monday, as
investors took profits off the table in a sign of growing unease with
economic weakness within some areas of the economy. On Monday, a gauge
of manufacturing in New York State slid much more than expected in May
to its lowest level in five months, the New York Federal Reserve said. Furthermore, concerns over the market's ability to
extend current rally have increased. The expected end to the Federal
Reserve's stimulus program next month and the recent collapse in
commodity prices have had many taking this opportunity to sell more
volatile stocks that have outperformed in 2011. Amazon lost 5 percent to close at $192.51, along
with "high-beta" names including Priceline, down 3.3 percent to close at
$503.38, and Netflix, down 3.8 percent and closing at $237.09. Priceline
is up 26 percent since the start of the year, while Netflix is up 35
percent. Tech and consumer-related shares were the largest
drags on the S&P 500, and their losses outweighed gains in defensive
sectors such as health care and utilities. Nonetheless, the S&P 500
index is still up about 27 percent since the start of September.
Furthermore, share prices could continue to move higher in the near term
as those chasing performance keep on buying. However, recent price
action portends further market weakness, some analysts say. The S&P 500
ended a tad below key near-term support of 1,330, closing at its lowest
since April 19. Among some of the most discouraging corporate
results, Lowe's reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and cut
its forecast for the year, sending shares down 3.6 percent to close at
$24.84. Financials helped stem the Dow's losses, including American
Express, whose shares were up 1.2 percent to close at $50.07. In the euro zone, finance ministers are likely to
back a bailout package for Portugal, with new conditions set by Finland.
During a meeting, euro-zone officials were expected to pressure Greece
to announce more austerity steps to secure further emergency funding. In other earnings news, shares of J.C. Penney fell
3.2 percent to $37.21 after the department store operator reported a
higher quarterly profit as the shares retraced some of their recent
gains. About 6.85 billion shares traded on the three major
equity exchanges, as compared with an average of 7.73 billion shares so
far in 2011.
Gross Says PIMCO "never" Short Treasuries
Bill Gross, manager of top bond fund PIMCO, said on
Monday it was a "misconception" that the firm was betting against U.S.
Treasuries, despite his concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook. "We, in fact, were never short Treasuries, we're
very underweight Treasuries, let's put it that way," Gross, the co-chief
investment officer of PIMCO, said in an interview with CNBC. He said PIMCO is outperforming 77 percent of the
bond market universe even as Treasuries rally "because we hold other
bonds that are doing better than Treasuries." The company's website in May showed PIMCO's $240
billion Total Return fund was short U.S. government-related debt --
which includes Treasuries, TIPS, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury
futures and options, and FDIC-guaranteed corporate securities. Asked by Reuters about which of those assets PIMCO
was shorting rather than Treasuries, a spokesperson said the firm does
not break down that information. PIMCO started betting against U.S.
government-related debt in April, with a short position equivalent to 3
percent of the assets in its Total Return fund. The fund increased that short position to 4 percent
this month as the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program neared its
scheduled end in June, raising worries as to who will support the
government bond market after that. Euro Slightly Higher The euro moved a bit higher on Tuesday, pulling away
from a recent 7-week low. However, downside risks remained after its
recent breach of a technical support level and given the lingering
possibility of further long liquidation. The euro also remains vulnerable due to concerns
about the debt of peripheral euro zone countries; although it gained
some reprieve on Monday after euro zone finance ministers approved an
emergency loan program for Portugal. The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.4171, having
come off of a seven-week low of $1.40481. The euro also edged up 0.2
percent against the yen to 114.629 yen, having bounced off a two-month
low of 113.403 yen. The $1.39-40 region is regarded as a significant
area for the euro. There have been rumors this week of stop-loss euro
offers at levels around $1.40. In addition, a series of euro support
levels are clustered in that region, including the 100-day moving
average near $1.3933. The euro had rallied to a 17-month peak near $1.4940
in early May, buoyed by market expectations for the European Central
Bank to raise interest rates further in the coming months, while the
Federal Reserve is seen likely to keep interest rates near zero this
year. However, the single currency has since slid about 5 percent from
that high, as a rout in commodities such as silver and oil spooked
investors and prompted them to trim back their risk positions. Renewed concerns that Greece may restructure its
debt have also dented the euro and tempered risk appetite. Positioning data published by the U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission shows that currency speculators trimmed their
net long position in the euro in the week to May 10 but still held
relatively large bets on the euro. Their net long position in the euro stood at 61,447
contracts. While that was down from a four-year high of 99,516 hit the
week before, it is still among the largest net long positions seen since
late 2007. The data also shows that speculators have flipped to a net
long position in the yen after having been net short the Japanese
currency the prior week. Such a change in positioning suggests that
there may now be less short-covering interest in the yen than before. The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against the yen to
80.90 yen, having regained some ground after having dropped to 79.57 yen
in early May, the dollar's lowest level against the yen since mid-March.
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MarketView for May 16
MarketView for Monday, May 16