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MarketView
Events defining the day's trading activity on Wall Street
Lauren Rudd
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Summary
Share prices fell on Tuesday sending the major
equity indexes into negative territory over concerns that a drop in oil
prices could set off a reversal in the energy sector. At the same time,
Alcoa's leaner-than-expected revenue disappointed Wall Street. Energy stocks led the S&P 500's losses. There is
already concern that the rally in energy stocks may have gone too far
ahead of earnings, and a further decline in oil prices could spark an
extended sell-off. Meanwhile, Oil prices settled lower for a second day
following a Goldman Sachs forecast calling for a fall of almost $20 in
the price of Brent crude oil in coming months. The International Energy
Agency also said high prices could curb oil demand. Unrest in oil-heavy
regions of the Middle East and North Africa has fueled a sharp rise in
oil prices. Signaling the start of the first-quarter earnings
season, Alcoa reported revenue that missed forecasts in after-hours
trading. However, its earnings exceeded consensus expectations. Alcoa's
stock ended the day down 6 percent to close at $16.70 and was the Dow's
largest percentage loser of the day. Materials stocks in general fell in sync with
declines in metals prices. There is concern among investors that Japan's
massive earthquake and a nuclear crisis could weaken recovery prospects
in the world's third-largest economy. Japan raised the severity of the Fukushima nuclear
power plant accident to the highest level on the International Nuclear
and Radiological Event Scale, putting it on par with the Chernobyl 1986
disaster. Dollar-denominated Nikkei future fell 1.3 percent. The day's slide broke some technical barriers, as
the S&P 500 index fell below support at 1,320, and touched the rising
20-day moving average at about 1,310. Volume was below average on the
three major exchanges, with 7.53 billion shares changing hands, compared
with last year's daily average of 8.47 billion. Shares of Community Health Systems rebounded from
losses the previous day, when Tenet Healthcare fired charges against its
unwanted suitor. Community Health shares rose 21.6 percent to close at
$31.48 on Tuesday. A number of Chinese-domiciled companies were among
the Nasdaq's biggest losers. These companies have come under scrutiny of
late as several Chinese names have been delisted from our exchanges.
China Shengda Packaging Group was down 7.3 percent at $2.55, while China
Automotive Systems lost 9.2 percent to $9.70. Some Are Exempt from Swap Rules Companies
would be largely spared from increases in the costs of using derivatives
when they hedge against price fluctuations, under regulatory proposals
issued on Tuesday. Power companies, airlines and major manufacturers
feared that regulators would force them to post collateral, or margin,
with a bank when they hedge against risks such as changes in currencies,
fuel costs or interest rates -- raising the cost of using swaps to lock
in profits. The proposals, issued by Commodity Futures Trading
Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp for public comment,
craft margin exemptions for the small slice of the derivatives market in
which companies need highly customized swaps that can't be cleared
through exchanges. The proposals are part of last year's Dodd-Frank
reform law aimed at curbing swap speculation of the sort that amplified
the devastating 2007-2009 financial crisis, while still letting
businesses hedge their risks. However, there were sufficient differences between
the CFTC's plan and the one issued by the FDIC and other banking
regulators, to keep some companies guessing about whether they will be
fully exempt from having to post margin when using derivatives. "I believe commercial end-users and many of the
financial end-users will be dissatisfied with the lack of harmonization
among the different regulatory bodies," CFTC Commissioner Scott O'Malia
said before dissenting in the agency's 4-1 vote to seek public comment.
The CFTC's proposal applies to non-bank swap dealers and offers a clear
margin exemption for corporations hedging their business risks. The bank regulators' proposal applies to banks such
as JPMorgan and Bank of America that serve as swap dealers, and does not
offer a clear exemption for end users. The latter proposal could force a
corporation to post collateral if the bank selling a derivative found
that the corporation was too much of a credit risk. It is unclear how often banks would have to demand
collateral from corporations, but the lack of a clear exemption drew ire
from business groups. "Despite the clear legislative history to the
contrary, the regulators continue to misinterpret the Dodd-Frank Act as
giving them authority to impose margin requirements on end-users," said
a statement from the Coalition for Derivatives End-Users, an industry
group. Profits hang in the balance not only for corporate
end-users, but also for the big financial companies that dominate the
swaps market, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and HSBC. They could be
hurt if they can no longer offer margin-free swap trades to
corporations. Nearly a third of all off-exchange derivatives trades last
year were not secured by collateral, or margin, said the International
Swaps and Derivatives Association. Companies have argued for a generous exemption
because they use derivatives solely to hedge risk. They insist they are
not at risk of destabilizing the financial system, and have trumpeted
the potential for higher costs. The proposals affect businesses as
diverse as Constellation Energy, MillerCoors and Caterpillar -- all of
which use swaps to manage risk. One study estimated that a 3 percent margin
requirement on swaps used by Standard & Poor's 500 companies could cut
capital spending by as much as $6.7 billion. The FDIC said the bank
regulators' proposal would have minimal impact on corporations hedging
business risk. "We should not impose an undue burden on the vast
majority of the market participants that really did not play a role in
the financial crisis," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said his agency and bank
regulators aligned their rules "to the maximum extent practicable." The CFTC, which polices derivatives markets, and the
FDIC, which regulates banks, are working on implementing scores of
post-crisis regulations, including the swaps measures, mandated by
2010's Dodd-Frank. The agencies' proposals will be issued for public
comment for about 60 days. Between now and then, the agencies will come
under pressure to make modifications. The difference in the bank regulators' and the
CFTC's approaches may hit the banks, which could be forced to demand
margin from corporations, compared with non-bank swap dealers such as
Shell and Cargill, which could offer margin-free trading for certain
swaps. The bank regulators' proposal will give banks two
options for determining whether they need to demand that corporations
post margin on un-cleared swap trades. The first option is to use a
standard table that regulators will create. The second would be based on
how much the trade could be affected over 10 days under stress.
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MarketView for April 12
MarketView for Tuesday, April 12