MarketView for April 12

MarketView for Tuesday, April 12 
 

 

 

MarketView

 

Events defining the day's trading activity on Wall Street

 

Lauren Rudd

 

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

 

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

12,263.58

q

-117.53

-0.95%

Dow Jones Transportation Average

5,239.48

p

+16.21

+0.31%

Dow Jones Utilities Average

407.67

q

-0.84

-0.21%

NASDAQ Composite

2,744.79

q

-26.72

-0.96%

S&P 500

1,314.16

q

-10.30

-0.78%

 

Summary 

 

Share prices fell on Tuesday sending the major equity indexes into negative territory over concerns that a drop in oil prices could set off a reversal in the energy sector. At the same time, Alcoa's leaner-than-expected revenue disappointed Wall Street.

 

Energy stocks led the S&P 500's losses. There is already concern that the rally in energy stocks may have gone too far ahead of earnings, and a further decline in oil prices could spark an extended sell-off. Meanwhile, Oil prices settled lower for a second day following a Goldman Sachs forecast calling for a fall of almost $20 in the price of Brent crude oil in coming months. The International Energy Agency also said high prices could curb oil demand. Unrest in oil-heavy regions of the Middle East and North Africa has fueled a sharp rise in oil prices.

 

Signaling the start of the first-quarter earnings season, Alcoa reported revenue that missed forecasts in after-hours trading. However, its earnings exceeded consensus expectations. Alcoa's stock ended the day down 6 percent to close at $16.70 and was the Dow's largest percentage loser of the day.

 

Materials stocks in general fell in sync with declines in metals prices. There is concern among investors that Japan's massive earthquake and a nuclear crisis could weaken recovery prospects in the world's third-largest economy.

 

Japan raised the severity of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident to the highest level on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, putting it on par with the Chernobyl 1986 disaster. Dollar-denominated Nikkei future fell 1.3 percent.

 

The day's slide broke some technical barriers, as the S&P 500 index fell below support at 1,320, and touched the rising 20-day moving average at about 1,310. Volume was below average on the three major exchanges, with 7.53 billion shares changing hands, compared with last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

 

Shares of Community Health Systems rebounded from losses the previous day, when Tenet Healthcare fired charges against its unwanted suitor. Community Health shares rose 21.6 percent to close at $31.48 on Tuesday.

 

A number of Chinese-domiciled companies were among the Nasdaq's biggest losers. These companies have come under scrutiny of late as several Chinese names have been delisted from our exchanges. China Shengda Packaging Group was down 7.3 percent at $2.55, while China Automotive Systems lost 9.2 percent to $9.70.

 

Some Are Exempt from Swap Rules

 

 Companies would be largely spared from increases in the costs of using derivatives when they hedge against price fluctuations, under regulatory proposals issued on Tuesday. Power companies, airlines and major manufacturers feared that regulators would force them to post collateral, or margin, with a bank when they hedge against risks such as changes in currencies, fuel costs or interest rates -- raising the cost of using swaps to lock in profits.

 

The proposals, issued by Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp for public comment, craft margin exemptions for the small slice of the derivatives market in which companies need highly customized swaps that can't be cleared through exchanges.

 

The proposals are part of last year's Dodd-Frank reform law aimed at curbing swap speculation of the sort that amplified the devastating 2007-2009 financial crisis, while still letting businesses hedge their risks.

 

However, there were sufficient differences between the CFTC's plan and the one issued by the FDIC and other banking regulators, to keep some companies guessing about whether they will be fully exempt from having to post margin when using derivatives.

 

"I believe commercial end-users and many of the financial end-users will be dissatisfied with the lack of harmonization among the different regulatory bodies," CFTC Commissioner Scott O'Malia said before dissenting in the agency's 4-1 vote to seek public comment. The CFTC's proposal applies to non-bank swap dealers and offers a clear margin exemption for corporations hedging their business risks.

 

The bank regulators' proposal applies to banks such as JPMorgan and Bank of America that serve as swap dealers, and does not offer a clear exemption for end users. The latter proposal could force a corporation to post collateral if the bank selling a derivative found that the corporation was too much of a credit risk.

 

It is unclear how often banks would have to demand collateral from corporations, but the lack of a clear exemption drew ire from business groups.

 

"Despite the clear legislative history to the contrary, the regulators continue to misinterpret the Dodd-Frank Act as giving them authority to impose margin requirements on end-users," said a statement from the Coalition for Derivatives End-Users, an industry group.

 

Profits hang in the balance not only for corporate end-users, but also for the big financial companies that dominate the swaps market, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and HSBC. They could be hurt if they can no longer offer margin-free swap trades to corporations. Nearly a third of all off-exchange derivatives trades last year were not secured by collateral, or margin, said the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

 

Companies have argued for a generous exemption because they use derivatives solely to hedge risk. They insist they are not at risk of destabilizing the financial system, and have trumpeted the potential for higher costs. The proposals affect businesses as diverse as Constellation Energy, MillerCoors and Caterpillar -- all of which use swaps to manage risk.

 

One study estimated that a 3 percent margin requirement on swaps used by Standard & Poor's 500 companies could cut capital spending by as much as $6.7 billion. The FDIC said the bank regulators' proposal would have minimal impact on corporations hedging business risk.

 

"We should not impose an undue burden on the vast majority of the market participants that really did not play a role in the financial crisis," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said.

 

CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said his agency and bank regulators aligned their rules "to the maximum extent practicable."

 

The CFTC, which polices derivatives markets, and the FDIC, which regulates banks, are working on implementing scores of post-crisis regulations, including the swaps measures, mandated by 2010's Dodd-Frank. The agencies' proposals will be issued for public comment for about 60 days. Between now and then, the agencies will come under pressure to make modifications.

 

The difference in the bank regulators' and the CFTC's approaches may hit the banks, which could be forced to demand margin from corporations, compared with non-bank swap dealers such as Shell and Cargill, which could offer margin-free trading for certain swaps.

 

The bank regulators' proposal will give banks two options for determining whether they need to demand that corporations post margin on un-cleared swap trades. The first option is to use a standard table that regulators will create. The second would be based on how much the trade could be affected over 10 days under stress.